Saturday, August 27, 2011

Irene Sets Rainfall Records in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, NJ, NY, CT, MA, NH, VT;
All-Time N Y City Record










Images (click to enlarge): Hurricane Irene radar image at 5:05 pm, August 27, from Intellicast; 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am, August 28, for New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Richmond regions, from National Weather Service. [Update: Added 24-hour precipitation ending August 29 for Portland ME, Burlington VT, Albany NY, and Boston regions]

August 29, 3 PM Update: Updated daily rainfall records for August 28 (Sunday):
Caribou ME         1.52"  (0.98", 1967) 

Bangor ME 1.97" (1.71", 1973)
Concord NH 2.66" (1.99", 1911)
Burlington VT 3.38" (2.38", 1971)
St. Johnsbury VT 4.83" (1.97", 1971)
Massena NY 1.02" (0.80", 1971)
Albany NY 4.69" (3.50", 1971)
Heavy rain extended northward into Canada, where Sherbrooke, Quebec reported 107 mm, and Doaktown, New Brunswick had 89 mm. Montreal measured 56.4 mm, bringing the monthly total to 223.0 mm; normal for August is 92.7 mm.

August 28, 9 PM Update: Today's 3.99" of rain at Central Park, New York breaks the old record for the date of 1.80" set in 1971 and raises the new all-time monthly record to 18.95". That is 464% of the normal August amount to date. The Irene storm total is 6.71".

More new daily rainfall records from today (old record and year in parentheses):
Bangor ME          1.85"  (1.71", 1973)

Concord NH 2.54" (1.99", 1911)
Burlington VT 2.70" (2.38", 1971)
Worcester MA 3.80" (0.99", 1971)
Hartford CT 3.84" (1.35", 1971)
Albany NY 4.56" (3.50", 1971)
Binghamton NY 2.69" (1.66", 1990)
Islip NY 1.80" (0.72", 2006)
Newark NJ 5.22" (2.04", 1971)

August 28, 1:30 PM Update: The National Weather Service reports a near-record water level at the Battery in New York:
  AT 8:42 AM EDT THIS MORNING THE TIDE LEVEL AT THE BATTERY REACHED 

9.5 FEET MLLW. THIS IS THE SIXTH HIGHEST LEVEL EVER RECORDED AT THE
BATTERY. AT 9:06 AM A MAXIMUM SURGE OF 4.5 FEET OCCURRED WITH THIS
HIGH TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

OTHER NOTABLE LEVELS REACHED INCLUDE THE TOP TWO OF 11.2 FEET MLLW
AND 10.9 FEET MLLW WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER
1821 AND HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 RESPECTIVELY...AND 9.6 FEET MLLW
DURING THE NOREASTER OF DECEMBER 1992.
August 28, 1 PM Update: Updated storm total rainfalls for Hurricane Irene, from National Weather Service:
Danbury CT         6.34"

Bridgeport CT 3.25"
Central Park NY 6.71"
White Plains NY 5.97"
Newark NJ 8.73"
Atlantic City NJ 4.56"
Philadelphia PA 4.84"
Dover DE 7.52"
Wilmington DE 5.77"
Georgetown DE 5.69"
Rehoboth Beach DE 4.88"
Salisbury MD 7.75"
Ocean City MD 12.09"
Baltimore MD 3.83"
Easton MD 11.34"
Washington DC 3.36"
Richmond VA 4.73"
Suffolk Airpt VA 11.04"
Elizabeth City NC 7.50"
August 28, Noon Update: The storm total rainfall of 6.71" at Central Park brings the monthly total to an unofficial 18.79", which is an all-time monthly record for New York City. The previous record was 16.85" in September, 1882.

Midnight Update: Philadelphia had 1.70" of rain in the 6 hours ending 8 pm and an additional 2.14" in the following 3 hours.

9 PM Update: Suffolk Airport in Virginia is reporting a storm total rainfall so far of 11.04". The Norfolk official total is incomplete, apparently because of a sensor failure of the automated station, but a co-operative observer reports 7.73".

7 PM Update: The National Hurricane Center reports:
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A

LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT
OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.
Original post:
Heavy rain is still falling from Hurricane Irene in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, but daily rainfall records have already been set as of 5 pm (old record in parentheses):
Richmond VA        3.42" (2.04", 1899)

Norfolk VA 4.47" (3.77", 1998)
Salisbury MD 3.05" (tie, 1922)
Georgetown DE 2.87" (1.14", 1964)
Elizabeth City NC 4.50" (4.33", 1971)
August 26:
New Bern NC 3.30" (2.45", 1999)
Cape Hatteras NC 3.67" (2.27", 1962)
Philadelphia has also added to its all-time record monthly rainfall with a total so far of 14.38". With 0.39" so far today, Central Park, New York has reached 12.47" for the month, which sets a new record for highest August rainfall.

Friday, August 26, 2011

All-Time Record Wettest Month at Philadelphia

Image (click to enlarge): Philadelphia precipitation for 30 days ending Aug. 25, 2011, from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS

August 27 Update: Added chart of 30-day precipitation.

Original post:
Hurricane Irene has not yet arrived, and this month is already the rainiest on record at Phildelphia in climate records which extend back to 1872. The National Weather Service reported this morning on the new precipitation record:
..RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL AT PHILADELPHIA  


WITH THE 0.61 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT YESTERDAY, THE AUGUST MONTHLY TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 13.61 INCHES.
THIS SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST RECORD OF 12.10 INCHES, WHICH WAS
SET BACK IN 1911.

THIS ALSO MAKES AUGUST 2011 THE ALL TIME WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 13.07 INCHES, WHICH OCCURRED DURING
SEPTEMBER 1999 /MOSTLY HURRICANE FLOYD/.

WITH HURRICANE IRENE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THESE RECORDS HIGHER.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Great Hurricane of 1944: Irene's Billion-Dollar Grandma?

An analysis published by Blue Hill Observatory shows that 247 tropical cyclones have affected New England in some form since official records began in 1851. Of those, 90 have been hurricanes, but only 15 have made direct landfall on New England or Long Island, an average of less than 1 every 10 years. Only 6 have made landfall after 1944. The most recent was Bob on 8/19/1991. The others were Carol (1954), Edna (1954), Donna (1960), Belle (1976), and Gloria (1985).

As the forecast path of an intensifying Hurricane Irene has veered northeastward toward Long Island and New England, it has invited comparisons with the Great Hurricane of 1944. The extended forecast discussion on Tuesday from the NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center said:
AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL 

THE LOOK OF A VERY DEEP
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH
TRACK AND POSSIBLE
INTENSITY TO THAT OF THE
GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944.
The 1944 storm, first detected as a fully developed hurricane northeast of the Windward Islands on September 9, skirted the coast near Cape Hatteras before making landfall over eastern Long Island, passing over southeastern New England, and moving along the coast of Maine as an extratropical storm. At its maximum intensity, it was a Category 4 storm east of the Bahamas, diminishing to Category 1 at landfall.

The Monthly Weather Review describes the aircraft observation of the storm on the 12th east of the northern Bahamas:
A weather officer aboard an army reconnaissance plane which became involved in the storm estimated the wind at about 140 miles per hour. He reported turbulence so great that with the pilot and copilot both at the controls
the plane could not be kept under control, and several times it was feared it would be torn apart or crash out of control. When they returned to base it was found that 150 rivets had been sheared off on one wing alone.
Although the Great Hurricane remained offshore before reaching Long Island, it brought very strong winds and heavy rainfall to the Mid Atlantic coast. Highest winds at Cape Hatteras were 110 mph, and the barometer reached 947 mb (27.97 inches of mercury). As the storm moved east of Norfolk on September 14, the highest wind speed downtown was 73 mph, gusting to 90 mph. The 3.97" of rainfall set a record for the date which still stands. The lowest barometric pressure at Norfolk was 985.7 mb (29.11 inches of mercury). The sustained wind speed of 134 mph at Cape Henry in Virginia Beach was an all-time Virginia state record.

Inland, precipitation amounts were much lighter. Both Washington, DC (2.51") and Baltimore (3.15") set still-standing daily records from a stalled frontal system on the 13th, when the storm was still off the coast of Georgia, but received only token amounts from the hurricane itself (0.19" at Washington, Baltimore not available).

Further north, there was considerable damage along the New Jersey coast (see photos), although the center of the storm remained offshore. The University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography reports:
During the storm, New York City saw sustained hurricane force winds of 130 km/h (81 mph) with gusts up to 158 km/h (99 mph). Damages consisted of power outages, some lasting 10 days, and downed trees throughout the city. In nearby Long Island, damages totaled $1 million (1944 USD) on the eastern half of the island alone. The beach eroded up to 6 m (20 ft) in some places, causing houses to be taken by the sea. In Connecticut, the most significant storm impact was the heavy, widespread rainfall. Totals of around 178 mm (7 in) were seen in the Hartford area, but the city of Bridgeport saw the greatest official total at 272.8 mm (10.7 in). Tobacco and fruit damage in Connecticut totaled to about $2 million (1944 USD) with similar overall damage costs occurring in Rhode Island. Greater than $5 million (1944 USD) in damage done on Cape Cod can be attributed to lost boats, as well as fallen trees and utility damage.
Wind records to date were set at Atlantic City (91 mph from northeast), New York (99 mph), and Block Island (88 mph from southeast). The 3.94" of rain on the 13th and the 3.82" from the hurricane on the 14th combined to help make the month the 4th wettest September at Central Park, New York.

Total storm damage was estimated at $100 million, equivalent to roughly $1.2 billion in current dollars. Considering the limitations of observational and warning technology, the death toll from the storm on land was relatively low at 46. However, loss of life was much higher at sea, particularly in the early stages of the storm. Despite being warned that it was steaming directly into the hurricane, the destroyer USS Warrington (DD 383) lost power and sank on the 13th:
The water rushing into her vents caused a loss of electrical power which set off a chain reaction. Her main engines lost power, and her steering engine and mechanism went out. She wallowed there in the trough of the swells - continuing to ship water. She regained headway briefly and turned upwind, while her radiomen desperately, but fruitlessly, tried to raise HYADES. Finally, she resorted to a plain-language distress call to any
ship or shore station. By noon on the 13th, it was apparent that WARRINGTON'S crewmen could not win the struggle to save their ship, and the order went out to prepare to abandon ship. By 1250, her crew had left WARRINGTON and she went down almost immediately, stern first.
Out of the ship's complement of 20 officers and 301 men, only 5 officers and 68 men were rescued. Two Coast Guard cutters, a minesweeper, and the Lightship Vineyard Sound were also sunk by the storm.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Hurricane Irene projected threat level as of 11 am, August 25, from The Weather Channel
- Tracks of hurricanes making direct landfall on Long Island or New England, 1851 to present, from Blue Hill Observatory
- Full track of Great Hurricane of 1944, from North Carolina State University
- Mid Atlantic and New England track of 1944 hurricane, from North Carolina State University
- Total precipitation, September 12-15, 1944, by Paul Kocin, via NWS/HPC
- Building damage on Seaside Ave., Atlantic City, from Monthly Weather Review
- Paving damage on Seaside Ave., Atlantic City, from Monthly Weather Review

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Irene Threat to New York, Northeast: Prof. Mandia Interview on CNBC

Prof. Scott Mandia tries to convey the specific risk of Hurricane Irene and the general threat of tropical storms to New York City and the Northeast while Brian Sullivan, formerly of Faux, interrupts on CNBC this evening:

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Texas Toasted: Austin Ties Breaks Annual 100° Day Record


August 24, 2 pm CDT Update: With a temperature of 100° at 2 pm, Austin broke the record for annual days with 100° or higher temperatures. The current count is 70. Record high temperatures are now forecast through the weekend:


Original post:
At 2 pm CDT today, the Austin temperature reached 100°, marking the 69th day this year with 100° or higher temperatures. This ties the record set in 1925. The current temperature is 101°.

Del Rio and San Antonio have not yet reached the century mark today. Through yesterday, they have had 72 and 43 100° days, respectively. The Del Rio total is tied for second highest, and the San Antonio total is the second highest.

For previous history, see:
Austin Ties Breaks Extends Record for Consecutive 100° Days
Update: Waco Ties Breaks Extends Record

Monday, August 22, 2011

Texas Toasted: Houston Ties Breaks Annual 100° Day Record, Exceeds Consecutive Day Record By Over a Week

6 PM CDT Update: Today's high at Houston was 101°. And don't forget Austin, where tomorrow is Tie Day.

4 PM CDT Update: The temperature at Houston Intercontinental is 100° at 4 pm, breaking the record with 33 days so far this year and extending the consecutive day and monthly records to 22.

Original post:
With a temperature of 99° at 3 pm, local time, downtown Houston (Intercontinental Airport) is 1° away from breaking its record for the number of days in a year with temperatures of 100° or higher. The high temperature of 103° yesterday tied the record of 32 days originally set in 1980. It was the 21st consecutive day with 100° temperatures. The previous record was 14 days ending July 19, 1980. The previous record for total number of days in a calendar month was 18, also in July, 1980.

Houston Hobby, with 12 days so far this year, is one behind its record in 1998 and 2000. Downtown Houston climate records began in 1892, and Hobby records began in 1930.

The Houston average temperature so far this month of 90.6° is an amazing 2.9° above the previous August record of 87.7 set last year. The previous hottest Augusts were:

87.7 2010
87.5 1962
87.1 1951
86.8 1999
86.8 1902
86.6 1980
86.5 1993
86.2 2009
86.2 1987
86.2 1964

Image (click to enlarge): Current (through Aug. 21) and record number of yearly 100° days in southeastern Texas, including Houston, from National Weather Service

Sunday, August 21, 2011

New York Precipitation Update: Second Rainiest August on Record

Aug. 27, 5 PM Update: The New York August rainfall record has already been broken with the approach of Hurricane Irene.

Aug. 25, 2 PM Update: An additional 0.47" so far today brings the monthly rainfall total to 12.06", within 1/3 of an inch of the August record.

Aug. 22, 10 AM Update: The preliminary monthly total rainfall of 11.59" at Central Park is confirmed.

Sunday's daily amount of 2.06" at Kennedy Airport is also a new record for Aug. 21, breaking the old record of 1.61" set in 1997. This brings the monthly total there to 11.94". That is well above the previous August record of 8.30" in 1976, although continuous JFK records date back only to 1964.

Original post:
After reaching the 8th highest August total by the middle of the month, an unofficial total of 0.67" of precipitation this evening has raised the Central Park, New York monthly total rainfall to 11.59", the second highest on record for August. According to the National Weather Service, the previous 10 wettest Augusts in records dating back to 1869 were:
12.36   1990    

10.86 1955
9.83 1927
9.56 1873
9.37 1971
9.28 1911
9.08 1942
8.97 1875
8.85 1933
8.72 1893

Seasonal Outlook

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Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.