Thursday, May 19, 2011

Climate Amplification: Record Wet Spring in Northeast


May 20, 5 pm EDT Update: The additional 0.19" at Buffalo today brings the monthly total to 5.23", which is over 250% of normal. The seasonal record is extended to 15.55".

Burlington's 0.39" so far today raises the May total to 5.09" and extends the spring record to 16.36".

1:40 am EDT Update: Burlington received another 0.22" of rain on Thursday, bringing the month to date total to 4.70" and extending the season to date record to 15.97".

Original post:
Although persistent heavy rainfall in the Ohio Valley has gotten most of the attention, since it feeds into the record flooding of the Mississippi River, excessive precipitation has extended well into the Northeast. Portions of northern Pennsylvania, northeastern New York, and northern Vermont have experienced over 300% of average rainfall in the last 30 days. With nearly 2 full weeks remaining in meteorological spring (March-April-May), some major reporting stations have had their wettest spring on record.

At Buffalo, where climate records extend back to 1871, the National Weather Service reported last night,
THE 1.12 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 9 PM THAT FELL ACROSS THE BUFFALO
AIRPORT MAY 18TH SET A NEW SPRING PRECIPITATION RECORD WITH 15.34
INCHES. THIS ECLIPSES THE ALL TIME SPRING (MAR-MAY) RECORD OF 14.90
INCHES SET BACK IN 1991. (30-YEAR AVERAGE IS 9.38 INCHES). MORE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS TOTAL FURTHER BEFORE THE END OF THE
MONTH.
The final total for the day was 1.14", which broke the daily record of 0.99" in 1904. That was the second daily rainfall record this week, following the 1.33" on Sunday, May 15, which broke the record of 1.31" set in 1886.

The spring rainfall record was already broken on Monday at Burlington, Vermont:
AS OF 5 PM EDT...TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR METEOROLOGICAL SPRING 2011
WAS 15.62 INCHES WHICH SURPASSED THE OLD RECORD OF 15.46 INCHES THAT
WAS SET IN 1983.

PRECIPITATION BY MONTH FOR METEOROLOGICAL SPRING 2011 INCLUDE:
MARCH 2011 - 3.39 INCHES
APRIL 2011 - 7.88 INCHES (WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD)
MAY 2011 - 4.35 INCHES (AS OF 5 PM EDT 5/16)
Burlington records extend back to 1884.

At Syracuse, the 8.53" in April was a new record for the month in a climate history which began in 1902. This immediately follows the driest April on record in 2010.

Image (click to enlarge): 30-day precipitation percentage of normal ending 8 am EDT, May 19, 2011, from National Weather Service

Energy Market Shrugs Off NOAA's Above-Normal 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 20 Update: Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seaosnal hurricane forecaster, conducted an online chat at USA Today's Science Fair blog this afernoon.

Original post:
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook at 11:30 this morning, calling for an above-normal level of activity:
  • 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
  • 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
  • 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
The major factors affecting the tropical season include:
  • Reduced wind shear and lower surface pressure over the tropical Atlantic
  • Higher pressure in the upper atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic
  • Warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures
  • Stronger African easterly jet stream

As this video from CNBC at 11:45 shows, Mr. Market couldn't care less. "Til it happens, we're just going to play it by ear", said a veteran trader.



If you think the market mechanism is a rational way to set energy policy, have I got a deal for you:

Note that the horizontal scale covers just a little over 2 and a half hours. The offering price for LinkedIn was $45. This is for a company which has no earnings and revenues which are about 1/30 of the IPO offering price.

Update: From someone who should know a thing or two about Internet bubbles, Henry Blodgett, see:
CONGRATULATIONS, LINKEDIN! You Just Got Screwed Out Of $130 Million

If at First You Don't Secede: South Carolina Stands Up for Incandescent Bulb Rights

The Colbert Report has the full details on South Carolina commemorating the 150th anniversary of the War of Yankee Aggression by standing up for the right to incandescent light. South Carolina has proven it "knows how to run a black market."

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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Massive Wildfires in Alberta Impact Oil Production



CNBC reported this morning (click image to view video) that massive wildfires in Alberta, Canada, fueled by high winds and very dry conditions, have forced some oil operations in the province to shut down. The fires, which at the peak numbered over 100, have burned entire towns to the ground. The town of Slave Lake, population 7000, has been one-third destroyed, with all residents evacuated.

The government reported on Wednesday that 87 fires were still burning, with 23 out of control, including the one in Slave Lake.

Slave Lake temperatures in the past week have been well above the May average of 9.7°C. The May total precipitation to date of 4.5 mm. is barely over 10% of the normal monthly total of 40.9 mm.; no more than 1 mm. has fallen on any individual day this month.

More video (click to play) from AP, via Google News:



More videos and images at Alberta News.

Image to right above (click to enlarge): May 2011 daily average temperature at Slave Lake, Alberta, Canada, from Weather Office/Environment Canada

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.