Friday, October 16, 2009

Record Cool Mid Atlantic Maximums

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


Midnight Update: National appears to have held at 45° and Dulles at 44° through midnight.

October 16 Update:
Nationwide, the total number of new or tied daily temperature records reported so far in October by the National Climatic Data Center:
Highest maximum: 573
Lowest minimum: 1,507

The preliminary high today at Washington National of 45° is 23° below average. If it holds through this evening, it will break the old record low maximum record of 51° set in 1940. This is one of the last 3 dates in the remaining portion of the year with record cool highs above 50°. The monthly record low maximum is 40° on the 23rd.

The high of 44° at Washington Dulles will also most likely break the record of
53° set in 1974.

Another record report for today:
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT SALISBURY WAS 53 DEGREES TODAY. THIS   
ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 16...
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1937
Additional reports for October 15:
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN ROANOKE VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 48   
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 53 DEGREES SET IN 2002.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 47
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES SET IN 2002.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DANVILLE VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 51
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES SET IN 2002.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 46
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES SET IN 1977.

A RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURE OF 55 DEGREES WAS SET AT RALEIGH-DURHAM
INTL AIRPORT NC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 57 SET IN 1945.

A RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT PIEDMONT TRIAD INTL
AIRPORT NC TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 53 SET IN 2002.

Original post:
A cold rain contributed to record low maximum temperatures in the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday (October 15):
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 54   
DEGREES TODAY. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR OCTOBER 15...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1939.
A statement has not yet been issued by the National Weather Service, but the high of 49° at Washington Dulles was also a record, easily beating the 55° in 1978.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

September 2009 Global Climate Update:
Second Warmest on Record

Click here for other seasonal weather analyses

Just in time for Blog Action Day's focus on climate, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center earlier this afternoon released its preliminary analysis of global climate for September 2009. The combined land and sea surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th Century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F). The September average was only 0.04°C (0.07°F) below the 2005 record. This is now the 33rd consecutive September since 1976 with an above-average temperature.

The land surface temperature was also the second warmest for September, and the sea surface average was tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest. Warm ocean temperatures were widespread, with the Southern Ocean near Antarctica and the Gulf of Alaska the major exceptions. A weak El Niño persisted across the tropical Pacific. For the year to date, the combined land and sea average is the sixth-warmest January to September period on record.

Regionally, Canada, Europe, the northern and western contiguous U.S., eastern Brazil, and most of Asia and Australia were warmer than average. The warmest departures from average occurred in Canada, the northern and western contiguous U.S., western Russia, and parts of Australia, where temperature anomalies ranged from 3-5°C (5-9°F) above the 1961-1990 average. For the contiguous 48 states, the U.S. average was the 32nd warmest on record. Temperatures were particularly warm in the West, where the region as a whole, as well as the states of California and Nevada, had their warmest September on record.

Images (click to enlarge): September 2009 global temperature departures from average, historical departures since 1880, and U.S. statewide temperature ranks for September; from NOAA/National Climatic Data Center

NOAA's 2009-2010 Winter Outlook: El Nino Rules

See here for other seasonal forecasts, including the current winter energy forecast.

In honor of Blog Action Day, here's a view of an effect which has a shorter time scale than climate, seasonal weather:

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center this morning issued its outlook for winter 2009-10 (December-January-February) in the U.S. It calls for a strengthening El Niño in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to dominate weather patterns for much of the country. The relatively warm Pacific water temperatures are expected to affect tropical rainfall distribution and in turn influence the strength and location of the storm track over North America.

The temperature forecast includes warmer than average temperatures over much of the West and central and northern Midwest. The best chance (over 40%) of warmer-than-average temperatures is from the northern Rockies eastward to Minnesota and as far south as Colorado and Nebraska. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than average from southern Texas northeastward to the Mid Atlantic area, including the Southeast. The Washington, DC region is on the borderline between the areas for over 33% chance (Maryland) and over 40% chance (most of Virginia) of cooler than average temperatures. The highest probability (over 40%) of cool temperatures is in the Southeast, from Virginia southward to Florida and westward along the Gulf Coast.

Precipitation is expected to be heavier than average along the central and southern West Coast eastward along the southern border and Gulf Coast through Florida. The wettest areas are likely to be most of California, central and southern Texas, and Florida. The driest areas relative to average are predicted to be the Pacific Northwest eastward across the northern Rockies and also from the northern Gulf States northeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the eastern Great Lakes.

Unlike the hype-casts promoted by certain commercial forecast services and media, the NOAA forecast recognizes the futility of predicting snowfall at seasonal time scales:
This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
Images (click to enlarge): U.S. winter 2009-2010 temperature and precipitation outlook and most recent Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from average, from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Record Cold and Snow in Upper Midwest

Image (click to enlarge): High temperatures for October 12, from Unisys

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


An early October outbreak of Arctic air has brought some daily cold temperature and snow records to the upper Midwest. Yesterday (October 12):
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON OCTOBER 12TH AT THE ROCHESTER   
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 35 DEGREES. THIS IS THE COLDEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED FOR THAT DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 36
DEGREES WHICH HAD BEEN SET IN 2006.
On Saturday (October 10):
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT HECTOR FIELD IN FARGO FOR SATURDAY THE 10TH OF OCTOBER 
SET A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM.
THE HIGH OF 35 DEGREES SETS A NEW LOWEST MAXIMUM FOR THE
DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 36 DEGREES SET IN 1935.

DESPITE THE COLD WEATHER REGION WIDE...NEITHER OF THE GRAND FORKS
SITES SET NEW LOW MAXIMUM RECORDS. THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT HIGH OF
37 WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE THE OCTOBER 10 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 36 SET IN
1959. AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA/NWS CLIMATE SITE THE HIGH OF
35 WAS 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE OCTOBER 10 RECORD OF 33 SET IN 1919.
A daily snowfall record was set on Saturday (October 10):
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.1 INCHES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 2006.
On October 12:
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 2.5 INCHES WAS SET AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL  
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN THE TWIN CITIES MN TODAY...OCTOBER 12 2009.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 1959.
Other snowfall observations for October 12:
INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME  
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
4.20 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1100 AM
U OF MN ST PAUL CAMPUS
4.00 4 SSE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0955 AM
4.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
3.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
3.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0800 AM
3.60 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0334 PM
3.60 2 N CHASKA MN CARVER 1100 AM
3.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0213 PM
3.50 MAPLEWOOD MN RAMSEY 1100 AM
3.50 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 1100 AM
3.50 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1035 AM
3.50 CHASKA 2 NW MN CARVER 0800 AM
3.50 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
3.40 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
3.20 LAKE ELMO 3 SE MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
3.10 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0800 AM
3.10 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0300 PM
3.00 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0250 PM
3.00 CHANHASSEN NWS MN CARVER 0115 PM
3.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 1150 AM
3.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM
2.80 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1100 AM
2.70 CLAYTON WI POLK 0525 PM
2.60 1 SSW JORDAN MN SCOTT 0800 AM
2.60 HAMMOND WI ST. CROIX 0700 AM
2.50 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 PM
MEASURED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
2.50 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0501 PM
2.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0115 PM
2.50 GENEVA MN FREEBORN 1248 PM
2.50 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0848 AM
2.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0800 AM
2.50 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
2.50 BOYD MN LAC QUI PARLE 0700 AM
2.30 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0930 AM
2.30 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0700 AM
2.30 BUFFALO 2 NE MN WRIGHT 0800 AM
2.30 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
2.20 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
2.20 RICE MN BENTON 0800 AM
2.10 BONNIE GLEN 1 S MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
2.10 FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
2.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0615 PM
2.00 4 E ELLSWORTH WI PIERCE 0544 PM
2.00 BRUCE WI RUSK 0452 PM
2.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0437 PM
2.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 1058 AM
2.00 PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0715 AM
2.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0700 AM
2.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0800 AM
2.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
2.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0800 AM
1.80 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0700 AM
1.80 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0800 AM
MEASURED AT STATE UNIVERSITY
1.60 ST CLOUD AIRPORT MN STEARNS 0115 PM
1.60 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0600 PM
1.60 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0800 AM
1.50 WATERVILLE MN LE SUEUR 1000 AM
1.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0800 AM
1.50 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0800 AM
1.50 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
1.50 1 SE HENDERSON MN LE SUEUR 0800 AM
1.50 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0700 AM
1.50 SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM
1.50 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.20 CAMERON WI BARRON 1130 AM
1.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0715 AM

Monday, October 12, 2009

New Study Extends CO2 History
Current Level Highest in 20 Million Years

A new study published in the latest issue (October 8) of Science Express, the online version of Science magazine, has extended the history of CO2 levels back as far as 20 million years ago. The results indicate that current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of about 385 parts per million (ppm) are equivalent to the highest in that entire interval.

Previous analyses of air bubbles trapped in ice cores had shown that CO2 levels varied between 180 and 300 ppm over the last 800,000 years. The new technique uses the ratio of boron to calcium in the shells of fossil marine algae. It was calibrated by comparing its results to the measurements from ice cores. The new data show that during the Middle Miocene period from 14 to 20 million years ago, the CO2 level was around 400 ppm, very close to today's readings. The measurements have an average error of 14 ppm.

During the Middle Miocene, global average temperatures were 5 to 10°F warmer than today. Sea levels at the time were about 75-120 feet higher than today, and there was no permanent ice cap in the Arctic.

Image (click to enlarge): Atmospheric CO2 levels during the last 1000 years, the last 800,000 years, and 15-20 million years ago, compared with projections for the next century (from UCLA)

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.