Friday, September 4, 2009

Highest Arctic Temperatures in 2000 Years



Images (click to enlarge):
  • 2000 years of Arctic temperatures from Science, via University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
  • Changes in Earth-Sun distance during Arctic summer over time, from National Science Foundation

Midnight Update: Naturally, this research is too important to escape a hatchet job by the anti-science Anthony Wassup site. We don't go there or provide links, because the computer needs to get a tetanus shot after dipping in that bilge. However, the intrepid Tamino is already on the case.

Original post:
A new study published in today's issue of the peer-reviewed journal Science shows that current Arctic temperatures are the highest in the past 2000 years. Based on an analysis of lake sediments and comparisons with previous studies of ice cores and tree rings, the researchers extended the previous record of Arctic climate from 400 years to 2000 years in the past. They found that over the 1900 years prior to the 20th Century, there was a slow rate of cooling in the Arctic. This cooling is consistent with the relationship between small changes in the tilt of Earth's axis and its orbit around the sun. Over the last 7000 years, this has caused Earth's closest approach to the sun to shift from September to January. As a result, the intensity of sunlight in the Arctic summer has been slightly reduced, producing the cooling trend. Over the 20th Century, however, that trend has been overcome by warming which has generated temperatures that are now higher than in the preceding 1900 years. By the year 2000, average Arctic temperatures were 1.4° C (2.5° F) above where they would otherwise have been. Four out of the five warmest decades in the last 2000 years occurred in the 50 years between 1950 and 2000.

The paper's abstract:
The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.
The paper has generated considerable press interest, including:

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Austin Hits Century Mark Again, 1 Short of Yearly Record

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


PM Update: Today's highs:
Austin Mabry     101°
Austin Bergstrom 98°
San Antonio 96°
Del Rio 96°
Original post:
After reaching "only" 98° yesterday, the temperature at Austin (Camp Mabry), Texas hit a higher-than-forecast 100° by 3 pm CDT today. This is the 68th 100°+ day so far this year, just 1 short of the annual record. The latest date for a 100° temperature in Austin was October 2, 1938. Highs in the mid 90s are forecast for the area on Friday.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

DC Summer Temperature Recap





Images (click to enlarge):
- Washington, DC August 2009 daily temperatures vs. average
- June-August 2008-09 monthly temperatures
- 2000-09 90°+ days
- 2009 monthly cooling degree days vs. average
CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data, photo © Kevin Ambrose


See here for more Washington, DC weather records.

Sept. 2 Update: Added historical 90° data and chart; added links to previous data; added daily temperature chart.

PM Update: Added cooling degree data and chart.

Although June and July (especially the first half) were both relatively cool, August was by far the warmest of the 3 meteorological summer months, so Washington, DC is closing out the season with only the coolest summer in 5 years. The 2009 summer average of 76.8° is well above the 76° in both 2003 and 2004. Since the summers of 2000 and 2001 were also cooler than this one, 2009 is tied for the median summer temperature of the decade. Unlike last year, when all 3 months were above average, this summer started cool but finished with an August that was not only above the current July, but also above the long-term July average.

There were 2 days with 90° or higher temperatures in June, 7 in July, and 12 in August. The total of 21 was well below the average of 31. This was the lowest number of 90°+ summer days since the 8 recorded in 2004 and 20 in 2003. Other years in the current decade with lower numbers were: 2001 (16) and 2000 (9).

Monthly highs and lows were (normals in parentheses):
June   91 (95) 55 (54)   
July 96 (97) 62 (61)
August 97 (96) 62 (59)
Air conditioning bills were aided by the cool temperatures early in the season. Cooling degree days were as much as 17% below average in July, but the nearly 15% above average amount in August brought the cumulative seasonal total to exactly 4% below average. Monthly degree day totals were:
MAY JUN JUL AUG
93 272 378 467

Toles on Tea-Bagging the Climate Debate: Lessons From Health Care

As of well past noon local time, it still hasn't showed up at the online WaPo, but here's today's Tom Toles take on the upcoming tea-bagging of the climate policy debate:


See here for more climate-related humor.

Midwest Ends Summer With Daily Cold Records


Image (click to enlarge): 24-hour low temperatures ending 8 am EDT, August 31

For other record temperatures in the Midwest and elsewhere, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


A cooler-than-average meteorological summer (June-August) in much of the Midwest ended yesterday with some daily cold temperature records being set. The National Weather Service reports for August 31:
 A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 45 DEGREES WAS SET AT MOLINE IL TODAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 45 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1967.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...

CITY LOW TEMP OLD RECORD YEAR

MERRILL 31 38 1931
RHINELANDER 33 37 1935,2001
STEVENS POINT 39 41 1931
APPLETON 43 43 1948,1967
STURGEON BAY 43 43 1963

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS TIED AT ALGONA [Iowa]. THIS
TIED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 41 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1967.

A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES WAS SET AT 6:19 AM CDT AT
THE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN LINCOLN, NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1992.
At La Crosse, Wisconsin, it was the 14th coldest summer overall:
DURING METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...LA CROSSE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT HAD AN   
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.3 DEGREES. THIS WAS 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 71.8 DEGREES. THIS TIES 1902 AND 1985 FOR THE 14TH
COLDEST SUMMER. THE LAST TIME LA CROSSE WAS THIS COLD DURING A
SUMMER WAS BACK IN 2004 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS
67.8 DEGREES. THE COLDEST SUMMER OCCURRED BACK IN 1915 WHEN THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 65.5 DEGREES.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS THE TOP 20 COLDEST METEOROLOGICAL SUMMERS IN
LA CROSSE WI...

COLDEST START TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER
FROM JUNE 1 THROUGH AUGUST 31
IN LA CROSSE WI

AVERAGE
RANK TEMPERATURE YEAR
---- ----------- ----
1 65.5 DEGREES 1915
2 66.4 DEGREES 1927
3 67.1 DEGREES 1992
4 67.3 DEGREES 1924
5 67.5 DEGREES 1917
6 67.6 DEGREES 1891
7 67.7 DEGREES 1904
8 67.8 DEGREES 2004
67.8 DEGREES 1903
10 68.0 DEGREES 1965
68.0 DEGREES 1945
12 68.2 DEGREES 1950
68.2 DEGREES 1912
14 68.5 DEGREES 2009
68.3 DEGREES 1985
68.3 DEGREES 1902
17 68.4 DEGREES 1951
68.4 DEGREES 1875
19 68.6 DEGREES 1926
20 68.7 DEGREES 1928

It's Official: Austin Smashes 155-Year Summer Heat Record

For other record temperatures in Texas and elsewhere, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


As 100°+ heat persisted through August, it became apparent that south-central Texas was approaching an all-time summer heat record. That trend was confirmed last night when the June-August meteorological summer closed out with a record-smashing average of 88.4° at Austin Mabry, 1.7° above the previous high in one of the longest official records in the U.S. dating back to 1854. The 3 highest average summer temperatures have now been recorded at Austin since 1998. This was also the warmest June-August ever at San Antonio and Del Rio. It was the hottest August on record at Corpus Christi.

Here is the National Weather Service statement issued near midnight last night:
JULY 2009 WAS THE WARMEST JULY AND MONTH FOR AUSTIN MABRY AND SAN ANTONIO...  
AND THE 3RD WARMEST JULY AND MONTH OF RECORD FOR DEL RIO. THE MONTH OF
AUGUST 2009 HAS BEEN THE WARMEST AUGUST FOR AUSTIN MABRY AND TIED WITH
AUGUST 2006 FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST AT SAN ANTONIO. AUGUST 2009 WAS
THE 2ND WARMEST AUGUST FOR DEL RIO.

THE WARMEST AUGUST MONTHS ARE LISTED BELOW. THE FIGURES FOR
AUGUST 2009 WILL NOT LIKELY CHANGE...AS THE HIGHS AND LOWS FOR
AUGUST 31...2009 HAVE LIKELY BEEN ESTABLISHED AT AUSTIN MABRY...
DEL RIO...AND SAN ANTONIO.

AUSTIN MABRY WARMEST MONTHS OF AUGUST SINCE 1854

1. 89.1 AUGUST 2009
2. 88.5 AUGUST 2006
3. 88.3 AUGUST 1999
4. 87.6 AUGUST 1951

DEL RIO WARMEST MONTHS OF AUGUST SINCE 1906

1. 89.3 AUGUST 1952
2. 89.2 AUGUST 2009
3. 89.0 AUGUST 1911 AND 1951
4. 88.8 AUGUST 1962

SAN ANTONIO WARMEST MONTHS OF AUGUST SINCE 1885

1. 88.3 AUGUST 2006 AND AUGUST 2009
2. 87.5 AUGUST 1962
3. 87.3 AUGUST 1993

TO SEE HOW WARM THE SUMMER OF 2009 HAS BEEN...THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS
THE WARMEST JUNE TO AUGUST PERIODS.

AUSTIN MABRY WARMEST JUNE TO AUGUST PERIODS SINCE 1854

1. 88.4 JUNE TO AUGUST 2009
2. 86.7 JUNE TO AUGUST 1998 AND 2008
3. 86.2 JUNE TO AUGUST 1925 AND 1980
4. 86.1 JUNE TO AUGUST 1923
5. 85.8 JUNE TO AUGUST 1956 AND 2006
6. 85.7 JUNE TO AUGUST 1886...1918 AND 1954

SAN ANTONIO WARMEST JUNE TO AUGUST PERIODS SINCE 1885

1. 87.8 JUNE TO AUGUST 2009
2. 86.2 JUNE TO AUGUST 1980 AND 1994
3. 86.0 JUNE TO AUGUST 1998
4. 85.9 JUNE TO AUGUST 2006
5. 85.6 JUNE TO AUGUST 1962
6. 85.4 JUNE TO AUGUST 1990

DEL RIO WARMEST JUNE TO AUGUST PERIODS SINCE 1906

1. 88.8 JUNE TO AUGUST 2009
2. 88.7 JUNE TO AUGUST 1998
3. 88.5 JUNE TO AUGUST 1953
4. 88.4 JUNE TO AUGUST 2001
5. 87.8 JUNE TO AUGUST 1951
6. 87.6 JUNE TO AUGUST 1996

AS OF AUGUST 31ST...THE NUMBER OF 100 DEGREE DAYS FOR 2009 WAS AS
FOLLOWS...

AUSTIN MABRY.............................67
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...55
BURNET...................................27
DEL RIO..................................65
HONDO....................................68
KERRVILLE................................31
LA GRANGE................................54
LLANO....................................50
NEW BRAUNFELS............................72
PLEASANTON...............................58
SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT........59
SAN ANTONIO STINSON FIELD................70
SAN MARCOS...............................63
UVALDE...................................67

IN SOME YEARS...NO 100 DEGREE DAYS WERE OBSERVED. IN THE 1970S...
SAN ANTONIO DID NOT HAVE ANY 100 DEGREE DAYS FROM 1972 TO 1977...AND
IN 1979. IN THE 1970S AUSTIN DID NOT REPORT ANY 100 DEGREE DAYS IN
1973...1975 AND 1979...AND DEL RIO HAD NO 100 DEGREE DAYS IN 1976.
IN 2007 DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO DID NOT REPORT ANY 100 DEGREE
DAYS...WHILE AT AUSTIN FOR 2007 THERE WERE 3 100 DEGREE DAYS.

IN SOME YEARS THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAYS CAME AS EARLY AS FEBRUARY AND
MARCH...AND THE LATEST CAME IN LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY OCTOBER.
AT SAN ANTONIO THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY WAS FEBRUARY 21...1996
WHEN THE HIGH WAS 100...AND THE LATEST WAS 104 SEPTEMBER 28...2005.
AT AUSTIN MABRY THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY WAS 100 ON
MAY 4...1984...AND THE LATEST WAS 100 ON OCTOBER 2...1938. AT
DEL RIO THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY WAS MARCH 16...1908 WHEN THE
HIGH WAS 100...AND THE LATEST WAS 101 ON OCTOBER 4...1956. NEARLY
30 YEARS AGO ON OCTOBER 3...1979 THE HIGH AT DEL RIO WAS 106.

FROM JUNE TO AUGUST 2009...EXTREME ALL TIME MONTHLY HIGHS DID NOT
OCCUR...HOWEVER SEVERAL RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARMEST DAILY LOWS
WERE OBSERVED. THE HEAT FOR THE SUMMER OF 2009 CONTINUED
THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER.

THE HOTTEST DAYS THIS YEAR AS OF AUGUST 31ST ARE LISTED BELOW.

LOCATION HOTTEST DAYS AND DATE

AUSTIN MABRY 106 JUNE 25...JUNE 29...AND JULY 8
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 107 JUNE 25
BURNET 103 JULY 8...JULY 9...AND JULY 16
DEL RIO 107 MAY 6
FREDERICKSBURG 101 JUNE 25...JULY 8...AND JULY 9
HONDO 105 JULY 5 AND JULY 8
KERRVILLE 104 JUNE 29...JULY 5...JULY 8...AND JULY 9
LA GRANGE 105 JUNE 25
LLANO 106 JULY 16 AND 26...AUGUST 5...6...11...AND 23
NEW BRAUNFELS 107 JUNE 25
PLEASANTON 105 AUGUST 23
ROCKSPRINGS 100 JULY 8 AND JULY 9
SAN ANTONIO 104 JUNE 29...JULY 5...JULY 8...JULY 9...AND AUGUST 23
SAN ANTONIO STINSON 107 JULY 5
SAN MARCOS 106 JUNE 25...JUNE 29...AND JULY 5
UVALDE 108 MAY 8 AND JULY 9
And for Corpus Christi:
RECORD HEAT THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE AND JULY CONTINUED DURING  
THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE
AUGUST 2009: 98.3
2005: 98.0
1997: 96.3

MEAN TEMPERATURE (HIGH AND LOW AVERAGED)
AUGUST 2009: 87.6
2005: 86.8
1977: 86.6

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Rain in Maine: A Gain (Again!)



Images (click to enlarge): Maine 24-hour precipitation (inches) and 90-day percent of normal ending 8 am August 30 from National Weather Service

Heavy rain from the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny drenched southern and eastern Maine with maximum amounts over 4" yesterday. Bangor set a new daily record for August 29:
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.08 INCHES WAS SET AT BANGOR ME YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.43 SET IN 1950.
Thanks to relatively warm and dry conditions earlier in August, this brings Bangor to within 0.09" of the monthly average, but the seasonal total of 16.43" since June 1 is 174% of average.

Portland, on the other hand, added 1.68" to bring its monthly amount to 5.15", which is 181% of average. The seasonal total of 22.31" is 236% of average. The yearly total at Portland of 39.26" so far is only a little more than 5" less than the normal amount for an entire year.

Here are some storm total precipitation measurements reported by the National Weather Service:
..ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY  

AUBURN/LEWISTON 1.33 310 PM 8/29 ASOS
TURNER 1.03 401 PM 8/29

..CUMBERLAND COUNTY

PORTLAND-DEERING CTR 1.90 800 PM 8/29
PORTLAND-N DEERING 1.72 945 PM 8/29
PORTLAND JETPORT 1.70 800 PM 8/29
FALMOUTH 1.61 730 PM 8/29
BRUNSWICK 1.55 715 PM 8/29

..HANCOCK COUNTY

SOUTHWEST HARBOR 3.65 925 AM 8/30 SPOTTER HA047
SWANS ISLAND 3.20 712 AM 8/30 SPOTTER HA044
EAST SURRY 2.65 1159 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
HANCOCK - MFS 2.05 900 AM 8/30 FOREST SERVICE HCKM1
BAR HARBOR 1.92 800 AM 8/30 AWOS KBHB
SEDGWICK RIDGE 1.90 632 AM 8/30 CWOP C6342

..KENNEBEC COUNTY

AUGUSTA 1.50 800 PM 8/29

..KNOX COUNTY

CAMDEN 2.74 955 PM 8/29
ROCKLAND/KNOX 1.59 800 PM 8/29

..PENOBSCOT COUNTY

OLD TOWN 2.19 900 AM 8/30 COOP OLDM1
SUNKHAZE N.W.R. 2.11 900 AM 8/30 COOP SHZM1
BANGOR 2.08 800 AM 8/30 ASOS KBGR
MILLINOCKET 0.60 700 AM 8/30 COOP MLTM1

..SAGADAHOC COUNTY

WISCASSET 1.76 800 PM 8/29

..WASHINGTON COUNTY

HARRINGTON 4.30 604 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS022
COLUMBIA FALLS 4.00 807 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS014
CUTLER 4.00 847 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS040
LUBEC 3.93 638 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS025
CHERRYFIELD 3.78 604 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS009
JONESBORO 3.78 900 AM 8/30 COOP JONM1
MARSHFIELD 3.58 1050 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS029
EASTPORT COOP 3.48 700 AM 8/30 COOP EPTM1
EASTPORT 3.35 900 AM 8/30 COOP EPOM1
ROBBINSTON 3.09 126 AM 8/30 COOP ROBM1
MILBRIDGE 2.97 905 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS031
MOOSEHORN N.W.R. 2.80 900 AM 8/30 COOP MWRM1
WHITING 2.65 623 AM 8/30 SPOTTER WS038
WESLEY 2.64 600 AM 8/30 COOP WLYM1
GRAND FALLS FLOWAGE 1.95 900 AM 8/30 USGS GRFM1
PRINCETON 1.76 900 AM 8/30 COOP PNNM1
WEST GRAND DAM 1.74 900 AM 8/30 USGS WGLM1
TOPSFIELD 1.70 700 AM 8/30 COOP TOPM1
VANCEBORO 1.64 900 AM 8/30 USGS VBOM1
DANFORTH 1.05 900 AM 8/30 COOP DANM1

..YORK COUNTY

HOLLIS 2.10 800 PM 8/29
SOUTH BERWICK 2.04 551 PM 8/29
KENNEBUNK 1.95 839 PM 8/29

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.